ASIA PACIFIC SECURITY OUTLOOK 2000.

AuthorSMITH, RON
PositionReview

ASIA PACIFIC SECURITY OUTLOOK 2000 Editors: Richard W. Baker and Charles E. Morrison Published by: Japan Center for International Exchange, Tokyo, 2000, 197pp.

The Asia-Pacific security scene appears as a constantly shifting kaleidoscope of political, social and ideological influences. Some patterns persist and dominate for long periods but overall there is a continual evolution and change, to which those who are concerned to determine defence and foreign policy must respond. In this context the annual review by a collective of ASEAN Regional Forum representatives presents a very useful snapshot of the security scene at a particular point in time.

Asia Pacific Security Outlook 2000 offers eighteen very readable and commendably brief country by country assessments together with a regional overview. The publication shows an overall uniformly high standard of writing with very competent expositions from the point of view of well-placed experts in virtually every country in the region. There are some notable omissions, though. The non-representation of North Korea and Taiwan no doubt reflect well-known political sensitivities, but their absence is nonetheless regrettable.

Tensions on the Korean peninsula and between China and Taiwan are one of the more persistent features of the Asia-Pacific security scene, although the recent apparent thaw in relations between North and South Korea may presage a change for the better. Indeed, the South Korean contributor comments that the overall security environment in North-east Asia is `now less threatening than it has been for decades'. On the other hand, the 1998 testing of nuclear weapons by India and Pakistan has markedly altered the threat perception in that region. For those who might hope to reverse recent developments on the sub-continent, the comments of the Indian contributor are highly significant. Possession of a nuclear arsenal is a guarantee of non-interference, we are told. On this principle, India would retain nuclear weapons all the while another party had the capacity to impose on the country militarily, and not necessarily by nuclear means.

Nearer at hand, developments in Indonesia over the last two years have profound implications for policy-makers in Australia and New Zealand. Indonesia may have become more democratic but it has become less stable. Events in East Timor have not only shaken relations between Indonesia and Australia but also established a crucially important precedent...

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