Asking awkward questions: Vasyl Myroshnychenko argues that the world has changed and that New Zealand should stand up to the Russian bully.

AuthorMyroshnychenko, Vasyl

The world has changed dramatically. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was something we could not believe; we could not believe it in 2013-14, and we could not believe it again earlier this year. We are talking about irrational behaviour in international relations, and that brings lots of interesting discussions and lots of food for thought for countries in different parts of the world, including here in the Indo-Pacific region.

Nobody expected Ukraine to mount such a big fight. Most of Western analysts and military experts predicted that it would fall in three days. But it did not. Ukrainian society has demonstrated a resilience the world has not seen since the Second World War. We have been able to fight. Many Ukrainians are getting killed right now. Awkward questions must be asked: how many New Zealanders are willing to fight and die for their country? Someone in Australia advised me not to ask that question because it is politically incorrect. But if someone had asked me ten years ago if Russia would invade my country, and are you ready to die, I would have said, are you crazy? It is impossible. Why would they invade? It does not make sense.

These are questions we have to think about because the world has changed. No matter how the conflict plays out, it is not possible to backtrack. What has already happened cannot be reversed. We have seen an example of a country changing borders by force. Of course, the way it ends will depend on who else becomes involved, or does the same, and in what part of the world--in the Middle East, in Africa or in the Indo-Pacific region. It is happening now, and we will see more of this behaviour.

Climate change is happening. The world's population is growing. As access to food has become a necessity, countries which have water and food are in high demand. New Zealand is one of them. So as the populations in Asia and Africa grow, the people need to be fed. Clean water has become the new oil. New Zealand has plenty of that water. It looks like a very good source of food and water. What is going to happen if there is competition for food and water? What if somebody decides to invade New Zealand? Who is going to defend it? Australia? I hear that all the time, but what if Australia is distracted by bush fires or flooding or is busy defending itself? America? What if America is busy?

Important question

That is another question that is not politically correct to ask. But it is a question that we in Ukraine did not think about for a long time either. My country became independent in 1991 in what was a very peaceful dissolution of the Soviet Union. To be sure, there were skirmishes in Transnistria in Moldova, in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan and in the Caucasus in Georgia, but generally the dissolution of the Soviet Union did not involve great violence.

On independence Ukraine had the second largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world. There are very few countries that have voluntarily given up their nuclear weapons. In 1994 Ukraine did it voluntarily. Would Russia have invaded Ukraine if it had nuclear...

To continue reading

Request your trial

VLEX uses login cookies to provide you with a better browsing experience. If you click on 'Accept' or continue browsing this site we consider that you accept our cookie policy. ACCEPT