China's Coming War With Asia.

• Author: To, James
• Position: Book review

China's Coming War With Asia

Author: Jonathan Holslag

Published by: Polity Books, Cambridge, 2015, 176pp, A$31.95.

The cover of Jonathan Holslag's latest book China's Coming War with Asia depicts a doomsday clock ticking towards an unfortunate denouement for China's rejuvenation. To justify his somewhat sensational choice of title, Holslag presents a well-researched and measured proposition--that notwithstanding all the economic, communication, multilateral and organisational links built up with it over recent decades, China's drive to maximise its geo-political and economic security will eventually cause a large enough power shift to cause conflict in the region.

Holslag's argument takes a structural approach, based upon the premise of the zero-sum security dilemma. He argues that China's rise follows a normal trajectory--with all of the problems that other great powers have faced during their own ascendance. As such, China should be viewed in relative terms: against its own domestic situation and problems, as well as how it is performing with its neighbours and competitors. Moreover, it is the international environment that shapes China's preferences and behaviour. Therefore, the United States (in a bid to retain its leading super-power position) is equally to blame for increasing tensions. Smaller countries are left with the predicament of which side to choose.

Various authors have been captivated by this enigmatic topic. For example, in Collision Course: America and East Asia in the Past and the Future (St Martin's Press, 1996), Bryce Harland also examined similar themes: who would China's neighbours and trade partners support in a regional fracas? Given their respective historical tendencies and traditional power arrangements, would they align with the United States or China? Or might they prefer to seek unity and strength amongst themselves instead?

Although twenty years have passed since Harland's speculations, the same conundrum is strikingly pertinent today --given the increased tensions stirred up by China's assertive maritime activity and buildup of military facilities in the South China Sea over the past few years. As reviewed in the July/August 2015 edition of this journal (vol 40, no 4), Bill Hayton, in The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia (Yale University Press, 2014), also considers war in the region a likelihood, but concludes that the high level of inter-dependency amongst the relevant actors may serve to...