Confidence slumps near GFC lows

• Author: Liam Dann
• Published date: 01 December 2022
• Publication title: Whanganui Chronicle

“The survey clearly indicates weaker activity ahead, which is what the RBNZ is trying to bring about in order to lower inflation pressure,” said ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner

“There are a lot of dark clouds on the horizon, and this month’s survey reflects that.”

Business confidence fell 14 points in November to -57, while expected own activity fell 11 points to -14, only 8 points shy of 2009 lows.

“Pricing intentions and cost expectations are falling — but the latter is barely off its highs, and pricing intentions are still far too high for the Reserve Bank to take comfort,” Zollner said.

“Inflation expectations hit a fresh record high, which will not provide the RBNZ with any comfort whatsoever.”

There were some positives with the outlook for where pricing will be in three months now just up 3.7 per cent — the lowest expectation this year.

“Expected cost increases eased for every sector except manufacturing and services, but outside of construction, it’s a stretch to say there’s a clear downward trend,” Zollner said.

On average, firms were still expecting margin compression, in that costs were expected to go up 6.1 per cent over the next three months, but their prices by only 3.7 per cent, she said.

“The strain is showing for Kiwi businesses.

“Cost increases remain relentless and margins are squeezed, firms are chronically understaffed, and they’re waiting for the hammer to fall as the impact of relentless monetary policy tightening eventually kicks in.”

By sector, an intention to raise prices is most widespread in the retail sector, with 80 per cent of firms intending to raise their prices in the next three months and manufacturing (69 per cent).

Construction sector pricing intentions dropped most dramatically, from 94 per cent in March to 44 per cent...