Countering over-stretch: Dmitry Shlapentokh puts the recent deal with Iran in the context of US decline.

• Author: Shlapentokh, Dmitry

The agreement the United States and several other powers concluded with Iran recently has broad implications. It has nothing to do with saving the United States/Israel and the global community from 'insane' mullahs. It indicates that the United States has actually abandoned any idea of 'preventive' war with Iran, and further demonstrates changes in the United States' socio-economic posture and related military capacity, which will inevitably lead to the further erosion of the US 'empire'. This isolationist drive--structurally similar to that of the early post-Soviet Russia period--could have not just positive but also negative implications for the global community.

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The recent negotiation and final agreement between Iran and the United States and several other powers should be placed in the broad context of the US geo-political posture. In the last year or so Washington has scrapped its plans to strike Syria, allegedly because of Putin's counter-measures. Washington was also unable to stop Russia annexing Crimea and exerting control over eastern Ukraine. ISIS is spreading through Iraq and Syria. The Iranian negotiations were related to all of these phenomena. They were one of the many manifestations of US decline and inability to project its power in post-Cold War fashion.

The Obama administration presents the deal as a victory. In its interpretation, the deal will save the United States and its allies from 'insane' people in Teheran. In the United States' official discourse, Iranians would engage in suicidal use of atomic weapons. They will strike the United States and Israel regardless of the consequences. In Iranian eyes, the story is very different. If Iranians need a bomb, they need it as insurance from 'preventive' strikes by the United States/Israel. They want to re-build the great Persian empire but not to engage in self-destructive actions. The very fact that the deal was reached implies that the plans for 'preventive' wars are abandoned. And these mark an important change in the US geo-political posture, reflecting its actual decline. This could well create difficulties not just for the United States but also for the global community.

Stark contrast

When considering current Washington/Teheran negotiations, one should bear in mind that the United States has not been engaged in any formal negotiation with Iran since 1979 and that discussion of the possibility of attacking Iran was going on during the George W. Bush...