Five lessons for 2021 and beyond

• Published date: 26 February 2021
• Author: Michael Baker, Amanda Kvalsvig and Nick Wilson Michael Baker is a professor of public health at the University of Otago; Amanda Kvalsvig is a senior research fellow at the Department of Public Health, University of Otago; Nick Wilson is a professor of public health at the University of Otago.
• Date: 26 February 2021

A year on, what are some of the lessons we have learned about this pandemic? And what are the implications for improving our response in future?

One of the main reasons for asking these questions lies in the legacy value of any improvements we make. That is, the potential for using this crisis as the catalyst for an urgently needed upgrade to the country’s public health infrastructure, to enhance health, equity, prosperity and sustainability in the long term.

Elimination is the right strategyArguably, New Zealand’s greatest lesson is that an elimination strategy is the optimal response for a moderate to severe pandemic like Covid-19. The strategy provides a vivid example of how protecting public health also protects the economy when compared with mitigation or suppression strategies.

This successful approach has required decisive science-backed government action and outstanding communication to create the social licence needed for an effective response.

Prevention remains a fundamental strategy. At a technical level, we have learned Covid-19 transmission is mainly through airborne spread indoors, often from pre-symptomatic people. This highlights the value of mask use and good ventilation.

The risk from contaminated surfaces has been overemphasised. The virus shows large “transmission heterogeneity” (only about 20 per cent of infected cases are responsible for most of the transmission), further underlining the importance of preventing super-spreading events.

...