Focusing on economic security: Tim Wood suggests a radical re-prioritisation of New Zealand's defence policy in the forthcoming Defence white paper.

• Author: Wood, Tim

The 2015 Defence white paper is likely to maintain the status quo with regard to defence capabilities. Surprises are unlikely. In consideration of uncertainty in the dairy market, the effects of El Nino and rising tensions in the South China Sea, all of which have the potential to adversely affect the national security of New Zealand, should the white paper do more? Perspectives of trade, diplomacy and military capabilities suggest that in the absence of a comprehensive national security strategy, greater emphasis should be placed upon ensuring that the New Zealand Defence Force can deliver a significant contribution to the nation's economic security.

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In the absence of a cogent national security strategy, it is considered that New Zealand faces almost no risk of an act of international aggression against its territorial integrity, at least to 2040. Indeed, for most New Zealanders a greater risk to national security is posed by the unpredictability of a catastrophic hydrological, geological or geo-physical event. As a result, it is generally perceived that New Zealand enjoys a relatively benign environment. However, this perception engenders ignorance of a greater concern facing the nation: the fragility of New Zealand's economic security.

Because of New Zealand's fertile soil, sophisticated farming methods and advanced technology, agricultural commodities make up approximately 50 per cent of all exports, including dairy products, of which it is one of the top five exporters. These essentially 'rural' exports are complemented by manufacturing, the service sector and high-tech capabilities. As New Zealand does not have a sufficiently broad manufacturing and technology base to sustain the efficiency and sophistication that underpins the agricultural sector, machinery and equipment, vehicles and aircraft, petroleum, electronics, textiles and plastics dominate its imports. This finely balanced economic model inevitably leaves New Zealand exposed to the caprices of its trading partners. Moreover, the control that can be exerted over factors that may disturb the balance is limited.

The New Zealand government has recognised the importance of bio-security, food safety measures and the protection and maintenance of New Zealand's 'clean-green' environment --security issues that can be addressed domestically. (1) Looking beyond national borders, the 2011 National Security System highlights the criticality of very long supply lines, reliable overseas sources, international transportation and supply line security; the impact of instability and conflict upon international trade and economic linkages; and peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region from whence New Zealand derives significant economic benefits. To mitigate the risks associated with these factors, in whole or in part, there is an imperative upon the government proactively to broaden the nation's trading base. Diplomatic and trade agreements have been concluded or are under negotiation with parties as diverse as ASEAN and Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan. Moreover, in April 2013, it was reported that China had overtaken Australia as New Zealand's most lucrative export market for goods traded, albeit Australia remaining the largest export market for goods and services.

So fundamental is China to New Zealand's economic wellbeing and prosperity that it is included in a number of MFAT developed 'NZ Inc Strategies'. (2) The purpose of the strategies is to:

[Strengthen] New Zealand's economic, political and security relationships with key international partners. They target countries and regions where ... there is potential for significant growth. The strategies look at the future possibilities in these markets over the next 10-15 years then set ambitious, five-year goals, as well as the steps ... to achieve them. Key role

The key goals of the NZ Inc Strategy for China include 'building a strong and resilient political relationship'. It is assessed that the benefits of this relationship will encompass an enhanced level of engagement; engagement that axiomatically provides more opportunity for investment and market expansion. Building high-level relationships and maximising areas of co-operation between security and law enforcement agencies in each country underpin this goal.

The establishment and development of relations with China is indicative of New Zealand's egalitarian approach to international relations. By dint of shared historical experiences, Australia is New Zealand's closest and most important security partner. But considerable progress has been made in reinforcing relations between New Zealand and the United States with the signing of the Wellington (2010)...