Game changer competition: Reuben Steff discusses the emerging technological arms competition and a possible New Zealand response.

AuthorSteff, Reuben

An increasingly complex arms competition is underway between the United States, Russia and China. While the United States is in the lead across a range of current and emerging systems, it can no longer take its position for granted, and there is an urgent need for greater attention to be paid to this competition as the strategic consequences are unknown. Furthermore, an opportunity exists for countries like New Zealand to seize the initiative and play a role in advancing arms control programmes that promote collective reassurance and will enhance international security.

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A new arms competition is underway between the United States, Russia and China, with implications for every state concerned with international peace and security, including New Zealand. Unlike the Cold War arms race that chiefly sought numerical superiority, the current competition is characterised by a race to develop new 'game changing' technologies, with the United States out in the lead across a range of platforms. Indeed, we are on the cusp of seeing the deployment of weapons systems that until recently have only been imagined in science fiction.

Since antiquity, military developments in one country have generated responses in others. Today is no different as Russia and China pursue systems to offset US advances. Despite the fact that the strategic consequences of this competition are unknown, there is little debate taking place outside of national security circles. To shine some light on this subject, this article firstly sets the stage for the competition taking place. It then considers some of the potentially 'game changing' technologies that are being developed by the United States, Russia and China, looks at how US missile defence is generating a response and outlines the nuclear modernisation efforts of these countries. Concluding comments make the case that New Zealand should positively contribute to efforts to restrain this competition and enhance international security.

While the United States maintained a clear military lead over its rivals throughout the 1990s and into the early 2000s, the picture became cloudier from the early 2000s as the Russian and Chinese economies grew rapidly, which translated into new military capabilities. This, in turn, has called into question the balance of power in neighbouring regions that they judge critical to their national security, leading them to assert their geopolitical interests in recent years. For Russia this had led to a struggle with the United States and NATO for influence over former Soviet territories (and parts of the Middle East); for China it is a confrontation over the East and South China seas, and nearby naval trade routes through which an increasing amount of global trade transits.

This confrontation has been intensified by the fact that America's advantage in conventional weapons technology is being challenged. Two high profile examples include China's pursuit of 'carrier killer' ballistic missiles (the DF-21) designed to push US power away from the Chinese coast and Russia's cruise missiles strikes from the Mediterranean into Syria that took many commentators by surprise. Speaking in November 2014, then US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel articulated America's concerns when he stated that

countries like Russia and China have been heavily investing in military modernization programs to blunt our military's technological edge, fielding advanced aircraft, submarines, and both longer range and more accurate missiles. They're also developing new anti-ship and air-to-air missiles, counter-space, cyber, electronic warfare, undersea, and air attack capabilities. (1) Furthermore, in a February 2016 speech current US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter made it plain that after a decade of fighting insurgencies, the United States is returning its attention to waging a great power competition against Russia and China. While noting that 'we do not desire conflict of any kind with either', Carter explained that 'Russia and China are our most stressing competitors' as 'they have developed and are continuing to advance military systems that seek to threaten our advantages in specific areas'. Thus 'DOD [Department of Defense] has elevated their importance in our defence planning and budgeting'. (2) The next section outlines some of the key systems the United States is developing to try stay ahead of its great power competitors.

Restoring superiority

While stealth technology and precision strike capabilities have given America an ability to project power deep into the territories of adversaries since the 1980s, the proliferation of Russia's sophisticated air defence systems in recent years to China, Iran, North Korea, Syria and Venezuela, as well as Russia's and China's development of fifth generation fighter jets, has called the future of US air dominance into question. The deployment of new hypersonic missiles could renew America's advantage. In August 2014 the United States tested an advanced hypersonic missile as part of its Prompt Global Strike programme. Able to travel at five times the speed of sound (Mach 5), these missiles are much harder to detect in flight than traditional ballistic missiles and could allow the United States to threaten dispersed and well-defended nuclear weapons programmes deep inside enemy territory.

A recent report states that...

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