International challenges facing the trump presidency.

• Author: Hoadley, Stephen

Stephen Hoadley reviews the likely post-election foreign policy of the United States.

International challenges facing any US president are not dissimilar to the challenges facing New Zealand's leaders, although different in nuance and scale.

International challenges may be divided into

* geo-strategic challenges and

* global or trans-national challenges.

Also domestic challenges impinge on international policies, and vice versa, so will be considered below.

Geo-strategic challenges

Geo-strategic challenges denote risks in specific regions of the world in which US interests are threatened by the actions of other governments. Global challenges denote risks not posed by a specific government and not confined to any one area of the world but which potentially affect governments and their citizens adversely everywhere.

At the risk of oversimplification, I would identify the principal geo-strategic challenges to the United States as the following:

* the rise of China and its South and East China Sea initiatives

* the assertiveness of Russia in Ukraine and eastern Europe

* inter-state and intra-state conflict in the Middle East

* political instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan-Indian tensions

* North Korea's bellicosity and its nuclear weapons and missiles development.

Each of these geographic regions, or 'theatres' to borrow a wartime phrase, is host to confrontation of armed forces and focal points for strategic planning, military force deployment and possible armed operations.

China: While there is no explicit US policy to contain a rising China, the challenges that Beijing poses to US interests in the Asia--Pacific region are several. First is the growing threat to the US Seventh Fleet units posed by medium-range anti-ship cruise and DF-21D missiles, augmented by a modernising submarine fleet and air force. This threat is encapsulated in the All AD doctrine: Anti-Access/Area Denial. Beijing cannot prevail in main fleet warfare but can, at relatively little expense and risk, keep US ships well away from China's shores.

Second, China's claims to and build-up and militarisation of artificial islands in the South China Sea pose a risk to US maritime and air traffic, a risk shared by all countries in the western Pacific and South-east Asia dependent on maritime commerce and air travel. The United States takes no position on territorial claims by China and the counter-claims by Philippines and Vietnam. But deliberate US Navy 'freedom of navigation' patrols, soon to be augmented by similar initiatives by Australia and Indonesia, risk escalation of tensions and precipitation of incidents that could result in armed clashes. An associated risk is the splitting of ASEAN. Cambodia, Laos and Burma do not contest China's claims, and the new Philippine president, having been hosted by Beijing in October, appears willing to compromise. ASEAN does not speak with one voice, which complicates US policy.

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

East China Sea: Third, in the East China Sea China's claim to the Diaoyutai (Senkaku) islets, aggressive ship and aircraft deployments and declaration of an Air Defence Identification Zone have induced Japan to raise its defence budget and upgrade its 'self-defence force' by adding new platforms, including aircraft-carriers and longer-range submarines, and deploying marines to the islets. A clash between these historic adversaries would pose a dilemma to any US president: whether to honour the Japan-US Mutual Security Treaty (and how, exactly) or instead to give greater weight to the hitherto beneficial economic relationship with China, potentially sidelining Japan.

Readers may notice the absence of one other challenge often cited in earlier times: Chinas military threat to Taiwan. Beijing's claim to sovereignty is still alive, but is less audibly voiced these days, not least because the government of Taiwan has skilfully developed mutual economic interests with the mainland and Taipei has negotiated over twenty cross-strait agreements with Beijing. Activation of the...