Looking for opportunities with President Trump: Wayne Mapp considers the way forward for New Zealand as old certainties are wiped away.

AuthorMapp, Wayne

The Trump administration will pose many challenges for New Zealand, not the least being the abandonment of United States leadership of free trade liberalism. However, given the importance of the United States, New Zealand will also need to look for the opportunities that the new administration will present. One such opportunity may present itself as a result of Brexit. Britain will be seeking free trade agreements with its partners. New Zealand is already first in line. President Trump also wants a free trade deal with Britain. A free trade agreement of the 'Five Eyes' nations becomes a real possibility. This is a strategic opportunity that New Zealand must pursue.

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The election of President Trump has been the most unsettling experience that New Zealand has had with the United States for many years. Many old certainties were wiped away. Among the most important was being able to count on the United States as a leader in liberal trade policies, which has been a hallmark of United States policy since the end of the Second World War. This has been turned on its head.

Instead, as President Trump's inauguration speech forecast, it will be all Amerca first. Apparently not in the sense of Amercian leadership, but rather that the United States has to be the obvious winner of any deals. Hopefully that does not exclude the other parties to such deals also being winners. Because if other nations do not see that they also win, there will be no incentive to do deals with the United States.

The dramatic change in tone of the new administration means it is very easy to focus on the challenges that it will pose. That is not surprising. Given what has already been announced, these challenges will be very significant. They will span a wide range of areas and many of the administration's decisions will be quite different from what New Zealand would expect from a liberal democracy. But these issues should not blind New Zealand to the opportunities.

For both Australia and New Zealand, President Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership is a major setback. This decision alone completely unsettles the situation in the Asia-Pacific region. The decision potentially extends well beyond trade. What will be the implications for security policy?

The key partners of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, Australia, Japan and South Korea, will be wondering if they are going to have to be more self-reliant in protecting their own security. In doing so, they may wish to reduce their risks by improving their relationships with potential adversaries, in particular China. And for South Korea, looking at the ways to reduce tensions with North Korea may become an imperative. Part of that will include an enhanced relationship with China.

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