Looking to an uncertain future: Terence O'Brien reflects on challenges for New Zealand within the Pacific.

• Author: O'Brien, Terence

New Zealand faces a world very different to the one that shaped its identity in the 20th century. That world, centred on the Atlantic, is in a state of turmoil because of the Brexit decision. But a fundamental change has occurred, as the world economy's centre of gravity has shifted. Asia in particular has become an economic powerhouse. These changes are having major impact on New Zealand's external interests, and are affecting its sense of place in the world. New challenges have emerged. So too have dangers. New Zealand must adjust to a world marked by the arrival of successful non-Western powers with different histories, culture and interests.

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The old image of New Zealand as a small, distant, dependable outpost of an unrivalled Atlantic world, which shaped this country's identity for so much of the 20th century, no longer reflects the realities of New Zealand's situation. That Atlantic world is, moreover, in a state of considerable turmoil because of what seems, from this distance, a momentous Brexit mistake by Britain. At the same time, the centre of gravity in the world economy continues to shift in particular towards Asia, which has seized upon the opportunities of globalisation to record striking progress. All this is changing the horizon of New Zealand's external interests, as well as its sense of place in the world.

It is a world of new opportunity but also of challenges and, indeed, dangers as the emergence of a globalised version of terrorism demonstrates. Overall, economic globalisation is not, however, 'making the world all the same', as some of the more fervent free market admirers suppose. A conviction amongst Western nations that there is but one model for human progress--their brand of democratic capitalism spread on the back of a globalising neoliberal economy led from the West--is proving deceptive and nowhere more so than in Asia.

The rapid rise of Asia over the last third of the 20th century is unequalled in speed and extent. Asia compressed into a period of 30 or more years an advance that it had taken Europe nearly 100 years to accomplish. Asian governments variously adapted practices and ideas from Europe and elsewhere to their own needs, but they do not 'owe' their success to the magnanimity of others.

Indigenous versions of capitalism, of democracy and of governance in Asia do not, therefore, conform necessarily to Western practice or preference. New Zealand along with other Western countries should be very wary about any crusade, even those led by the most powerful, to dictate Western practices and preferences. New Zealand's own experience confirms democracy is a homegrown product not capable of simply being imposed from outside.

Moreover, democracies can display contrasting values. For example, the world owes the United States a considerable debt for the many accomplishments that it has bequeathed. Yet events inside the United States confirm different versions of values and of democracy from those cultivated by New Zealand itself. American militarisation of law and order, its deluded gun laws, racism, bizarre presidential election politics and lavish open-ended campaign funding of politicians by private wealth, which effectively purchases democracy, are all exceedingly different from the New Zealand experience. New Zealand, nonetheless, sets store by its ties to the United States. Diversity not conformity remains, however, the defining feature of the modern world, as Asia conclusively demonstrates. Making that world safe for diversity, tolerating and respecting difference and nourishing trust remain the supreme challenges for humankind.

Comfort zone

Values are not, however, to be discounted in the business of international relations. The cause of human rights--one of the foremost legacies of the 20th century--remains a central element because modern conflict involves such gross inhumanity that it cannot be simply ignored internationally. Radicalised extremism, frequently masquerading in the guise of religion, is a modern scourge, and a small, conscientious, prosperous and privileged country like New Zealand bears a responsibility to play a role within its means to confront the threats and to address their basic causes.

As the world moves through the first decades of the 21st century, New Zealand confronts, therefore, a challenging set of external realities. Its 'comfort zone' in international relations is being transformed profoundly. It relies significantly now upon Asia, a region whose culture, values, languages, traditions and world experience are very different from its own. The 20th century, nonetheless, teaches stern lessons. One is, for example, that as a trading nation it is highly inadvisable to place too many trading eggs in one basket. Diversification of dependency throughout the vast Asian region and between Asia and the rest of the world remains a compelling task for New Zealand traders and New Zealand trade negotiators.

It has become quickly clear, and most notably in Asia, that to secure predictable trade and economic connections which endure depends first and foremost upon sound political and diplomatic relationships with foreign governments. New Zealand's international relations horizons are widened extensively by the demands of the diversification process. They require in particular that New Zealand deepen understanding of Asia, its history, its various cultures and its ambitions. That involves a many faceted process of education across our entire society, embracing the New Zealand government system, the universities, schools and language training along with peer group connections through the professions --like lawyers, scientists, doctors, commodity producers and the like. It is a whole-of-country enterprise.

Amongst the transforming influences, the emergence of China in the 21st century in a world of established American primacy is a transcendental challenge for New Zealand and many other countries. The jury is still out over whether China and the United States are actually predestined to view each other as eternal strategic rivals or strategic partners. Like most small countries New Zealand does not want to have to choose between powerful partners if or when they disagree with one another. New Zealand needs a quality of diplomatic relationship, therefore, with Beijing and with Washington that can survive those occasions whenever choice becomes unavoidable. Such challenges of balance and consistency demand a brand...