Mum and Dad in the
| Published date | 23 October 2021 |
Thousands more will come from Extinction Rebellion (XR), the group dedicated to non-violent disobedience and disruption. “We don’t do hate,” says XR supporter and Guardian columnist George Monbiot. “We do anger. We do love.”
The shock troops will also include the British royal family. Queen Elizabeth, late-blooming activist: “Extraordinary, isn’t it,” she said the other day. “I’ve been hearing all about COP ... It’s really irritating when they talk, but they don’t do.” Prince William and Kate, sponsors of the biggest green prize in the world, the Earthshot Prize, will be there.
“We need some of the world’s greatest brains and minds fixed on trying to repair this planet, not trying to find the next place to go and live,” said William last week. Earthshot, not moonshot, geddit?
Prince Charles and Camilla are going too: “This is a last-chance saloon,” he says. “Literally. Because if we don’t really take the decisions that are vital now it’s going to be impossible to catch up.”
Also at Glasgow: well-organised shock troops from a host of small countries, including our Pacific neighbours.
Working with Barack Obama, they won a remarkable victory at the Paris COP conference in 2015. The target was going to be a limit on warming of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, but they got it pushed down to 1.5 degrees. Half a degree doesn’t sound like much, but on low-lying atolls and coastal regions everywhere it could be the difference between survival and being drowned.
Six years after Paris, though, we are still on track to overshoot. And, because of COVID, about a third of the Pacific delegates may not get to Glasgow at all.
GLASGOW WILL also host 25,000 other people, 125 world leaders and two dreams. One is to stop global warming. The other is to stop global warming while preserving as much as possible of our existing way of living on this planet. Those two dreams are often, but not always, in conflict.
President Joe Biden will be there, attempting to justify America’s claim to world leadership. Scott Morrison, the Australian PM, has also agreed to go. He won’t have much: his Government remains committed to a low 26-28 per cent emissions reduction goal for 2030 and cannot agree on getting to net zero by 2050.
Net zero by 2050 is the bare minimum committed to in Paris. Halving emissions by 2030 is the much more important goal right now. For developed countries, it should be more.
Vladimir Putin of Russia has declined the invitation to attend. Narendra Modi of India is still to reveal his plans, likewise Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil. No one wants to be the conference villain, perhaps, but their countries are all big emitters and their absence from the conference will leave a big hole.
The biggest hole of all, if he doesn’t show, will be created by China’s President Xi Jinping. Xi hasn’t travelled overseas since before the COVID crisis struck, and observers doubt the Glasgow conference will tempt him to break that habit.
Still, people are hoping. “Without China at the table, there is no pathway to 1.5,” said a developing country negotiator recently.
China will be at the table anyway. Its special climate envoy, Xie Zhenhua, is a veteran of climate talks and he’ll be there, while Vice-Premier Han Zheng may turn up too. Xie has been meeting frequently with Biden’s own special climate envoy, John Kerry.
There are some reasons for optimism. Two years ago, just 30 per cent of the global economy had net zero commitments: now it’s 70 per cent. The science these days is more clearly expressed and far more widely understood.
Even when countries have dithered, hundreds of cities have adopted strong emissions-reductions programmes. Many corporates are not waiting for governments either (although others are doing little more than greenwashing their profiles).
Things are different: new technologies, new economic opportunities and swings in popular opinion have done that. And more weather: this year’s rampaging floods in Europe and the heat dome over northwest America have changed the entire conversation. Urgency has arrived.
Britain, the host, really, really wants Glasgow to be a success. Boris Johnson has every...
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