Report: Potential for global spread

• Published date: 25 May 2023
• Publication title: Northland Age, The

The report Global Avocado Growth Far From Over says global avocado production expanded by a compound annual growth rate of about 7per cent during the past decade

“Attractive prices and returns during that period were relevant drivers to expanding production in key regions,” Rabobank global strategist for fresh produce Cindy van Rijswick said.

But against the backdrop, the report says, New Zealand export volumes last year dropped 20 per cent, due to a combination of sufficient supply in Australia, decreased demand from Asia markets, and lower supplies of export-quality fruit.

“Despite the growth in market diversification in recent years, 2022 brought volatility to the global economy, which weighed on demand for avocados,” Rabobank associate analyst Pia Piggott said.

“Weakening currencies in Asia, higher avocado prices, and increased reefer container rates were not supportive for New Zealand avocado demand. And we expect some of these headwinds to continue in 2023.”

Piggott said New Zealand avocado production was affected by La Niña, with significant wet-weather events causing waterlogged soil, poor pollination and a higher-than normal reject rate.

“We expect the 2023 season to bring lower production, followed by a bumper crop in 2024,” she said. “With plenty of production growth expected in the next few years, rebuilding market share in Asia will be a priority for securing demand.”

Global competition

The report says production in Mexico, which accounts for 30 per cent of global output, grew by a compound annual growth rate of about 6 per cent during the past decade, while Colombia (12 per cent of global production), Peru (9%), and Kenya (6%), grew by 11-15per cent per cent over the same period.

“Increased avocado production in...