Tourist numbers higher than predicted

• Author: Grant Bradley
• Published date: 01 December 2022
• Publication title: Whanganui Chronicle

The Tourism Export Council forecasts the number of international arrivals will exceed 2.1 million in the year to May 2023, 63.1 per cent of the number in the 12 months to May 2019

This is up from earlier projections of a 58.5 per cent recovery in numbers in the current year.

The council bases new assumptions on the strength of Australian and United States markets in September arrivals data and Britain, Singapore and Canada performing stronger than first expected.

“We think the positive September arrival trend will continue and be reflected in October and November 2022 results as well,” the council says.

With China aggressively pursuing its zero-COVID policy and restricting movement through its borders, it is assumed there won’t be visitors returning from that key market until late next year. China was the second biggest source of arrivals behind Australia before the pandemic and had been projected to become the biggest spenders by 2024. The key influencer on forecasts is the number of airlines, flight routes, frequency of flights and number of seats sold.

The number of visitors will reach 2.1m or an estimated 63.1 per cent of pre-COVID levels by May next year, and annual visitor spend is forecast to be $7.8 billion. By May 2024 this will rise to 2.9m visitors (86 per cent of pre-Covid) who will spend $11.3b (or 83 per cent of pre-Covid). By May 2025 arrivals could reach 3.3m (98 per cent) and spending $13.3b (97 per cent).

The council represents inbound tourism operators who take bookings...