CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES.

• Author: Harland, Bryce
• Position: Brief Article

On 17 February 2001 the NZIIA ran a round table discussion led by Professor Yang Jiemian, Director of the Department of American Studies at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies.

The debate in the US Congress over China's entry into the World Trade Organisation, Professor Yang argued, showed that there was bipartisan agreement on the need for the United States to engage with China on the basis of the One China principle. With the advent of the Bush administration, some readjustments were likely in US policy. If the United States went ahead with missile defence systems, there would be a change in the power relationship, which would drive China and Russia to work more closely together. The Bush administration would, at least initially, give more weight to relations with Japan than to those with China -- though Professor Yang thought there was no need for the United States to choose between them. The development of democracy may also induce the Bush administration to increase arms sales to Taiwan -- though Yang hoped the decision would be postponed.

On relations between China and Taiwan, Yang felt that for the time being the danger had passed and the situation had stabilised. Chen Shuibian did not have a majority in Parliament and is threatened with impeachment, just when the economy has weakened. On the other hand, China's policy has become more flexible: the latest formulation is that both the mainland and Taiwan belong to One China. Taiwan has not yet indicated whether it is willing to enter into negotiations on this basis, but contacts between the two sides are increasing.

Professor Yang was asked whether it would be possible for the People's Republic of China to make clear that its goal is democracy. He replied that in China such a change can only come about gradually, because the country is so big and has such a long history. The Chinese government could be doing more to introduce elections at the provincial as well as the township and village level. But first it had to strengthen the rule of law, and New Zealand could help by developing...