A CONTRIBUTION TO A RESEARCH STRATEGY ON CHILDREN'S LIFE OUTCOMES.

• Author: Petrie, Murray

Abstract

This paper is a contribution to the development of a strategy for cross-portfolio social science research on children's outcomes in New Zealand. Eight areas for research on the life chances of children are identified, and criteria for prioritising research projects are suggested. Capability for undertaking such research in New Zealand is also considered, and three major capability issues are explored.

INTRODUCTION

Improving the life chances of children is a primary focus of social policy in New Zealand. It is also one of the most challenging areas of public policy, because the factors influencing children's outcomes are multiple, complex and interacting. Identifying which factors are amenable to government influence, and how they can best be influenced, is extremely difficult.

Policy design and programme delivery should nevertheless proceed to the extent possible on the basis of well-informed judgements about what is most likely to achieve stated social objectives in a cost-effective way. The government invests large sums in income support for families, and on services intended to support families and improve outcomes for children. These are critically important investments in our national welfare. Relevant applied research in this area can be very valuable in informing the choice of public investments in children's life outcomes.

This paper is a contribution to the development of a strategy for cross-portfolio social science research on children's outcomes in New Zealand. The primary component of the paper is the specification of a small number of suggested topics as candidates for literature review. The topics are considered to be of particular importance for the design of social policy in New Zealand, and to reflect the key issues and questions being explored in research on the family and outcomes for children. Each priority area is presented with some illustrative research questions.

A secondary component of the paper is a discussion of issues relating to capability in New Zealand for undertaking research on children and families.

The paper is composed of four main sections.

In the first section, we explain why we believe that research should be focused on life outcomes for children, and locate our contribution within an overall framework for a research strategy. The second section contains a discussion of the role of research in designing effective social policies, and suggested criteria for ranking alternative research activities. The third section contains eight topics proposed as priorities for literature reviews, and the fourth section offers a discussion of issues relating to the capability for social science research in New Zealand.

FRAMING A RESEARCH STRATEGY ON CHILDREN'S OUTCOMES

Research on children's outcomes can be approached using the child as the unit of analysis, or the family as the unit of analysis. Using the family as the unit of analysis is likely to cause problems in specifying research questions, since it is likely to be impossible to develop an agreed definition or set of definitions of family.

Consider the goals of the social policy initiatives that this research is intended to inform. The main goal is improved outcomes for children, especially those who are disadvantaged. In our search for research themes, our attention was drawn to a number of reviews of policy-relevant international research. Many of these have titles containing phrases like "children's attainments", "the future of children", "child development", and "children's life chances". The emphasis in this body of research is on disadvantage.

Improved family functioning, or strengthened families, per se, is not the goal. Of course, what goes on inside families is of prime importance in influencing children's outcomes. The strategy of strengthening families is a means for working toward the end of better outcomes for children and young people.

There is a risk that a focus on improving outcomes for children may exclude efforts to improve outcomes for adult family members. We feel that this risk is not large. There is a close interaction between adult circumstances and outcomes for their children; inevitably action to improve children's outcomes will often involve improvement of the circumstances of parents or other caregivers. Moreover, studies based on the child as the unit of analysis offer a good way to discover the presence of problems faced by adult members of the household.

We suggest therefore that in its investment in cross-portfolio social science research government should place priority on research on life outcomes for children, with a focus on the following issues:

* What leads to poor life outcomes for children in areas such as health, education, employment, dependence on the state, and criminal offending?

* How influential are factors like income, welfare dependence, family formation and dissolution, other aspects of family functioning, and neighbourhood on these outcomes?

* How do the timing and duration of events and conditions affect outcomes?

* How can/does the state affect these factors?

A Suggested Framework for a Research Strategy

We consider it useful to place this exercise in the broader context of the development and implementation of a social science research strategy, and sketch out below seven stages in such a strategy. The process is not entirely linear; some stages would be done partly in tandem and there will be some iteration:

1. Selection and specification of the broad area of research

   We believe the focus should be on children's life outcomes.

2. Selection and specification of priority topics or research questions within the broad area

   This has been done in the section on "Priority Areas", below. These topics were developed by considering strategic social policy priorities, by incorporating input from policy departments on their knowledge requirements, and by some preliminary examination of the literature.

3. Reviews of past and current work for each of the priority topics

   These reviews should include, but not be confined to, literature reviews. A "stocktake" of New Zealand activity in the area is also needed, including descriptions of existing New Zealand data sets and current data-gathering efforts, research projects underway, and so on.

4. Development of a menu of potential research projects

   The heart of each research project should be a well-specified research question. Needs for data and skills, and opportunities for "piggybacking" on other studies or surveys should be identified. A project could be the development of a data set useful for answering a range of questions.

5. Assessment of capability within New Zealand for undertaking different types of research projects

   We discuss capability issues in the section on "Capability", below.

6. Mapping the capability to the menu of potential projects, in order to select a feasible subset, subject to funding constraints

7. Ranking the subset of feasible projects

   We propose criteria for ranking in the second part of the next section.

   PRIORITISING SOCIAL POLICY RESEARCH

   Examination of strategic social policy priorities identified by agencies reveals the major concern to be the existence and possible growth of a small proportion of families suffering chronic multiple disadvantage. These families are seen to be consuming a highly disproportionate share of resources in the welfare, health, education and justice sectors. Many of these families are reliant on the state for income support, and there is concern about the impact of this on the life chances of their children. Maori and Pacific ethnic groups are highly over-represented in this group.

   The Role of Social Policy Research

   How can social policy research contribute to the design of social policies that will improve the outcomes for these children and their families?

   Social policy is unavoidably based on assumptions and beliefs about the nature of society and social processes, and the causes of social outcomes. A fundamental role for a social science research strategy is to test and refine the assumptions on which social policies are based. At some risk of over-generalisation, the following are examples of key assumptions that appear to underlie the design of recent policies in the area of children's outcomes, and which could be tested with empirical research.

   * There is a significant incidence of inter-generational transmission of chronic multiple disadvantage.

   * Government interventions can break cycles of disadvantage and dependence.

   * Tightly targeting assistance on those families most in need is generally more effective and efficient than more universal approaches.

   * Better delivery of services to Maori is the key to better outcomes for Maori.

   * Families, rather than individuals or communities, should be the focus for government interventions.

   * Reliance on state-provided income is not desirable, and can harm as well as help the recipients.

   Another "high-level" role for research is the illumination of tensions between different priorities in some situations, in order to judge their relative importance. One example is a focus on strengthening the family in the small minority of cases where the family is the main risk to better outcomes for the children. Another example is a focus on the importance of adults being in paid work where this could lead to inadequate time available for the needs and development of young children.

   Criteria for Selecting and Prioritising Research Projects

   Criteria for selecting and prioritising research efforts are needed both for research topic areas and for specific research projects. Of the following seven criteria, the first two, "significance for national welfare" and "broad policy relevance", apply to the prioritising of the research topic areas. The subsequent five criteria apply to the selection of research projects.

   * Likely significance for national welfare

   This requires judgements about the magnitude of social costs that might in...