Liberia: UNMIL's hard-won success: Colin Robinson comments on the status and outcome of the United Nations Mission in Liberia.

• Author: Robinson, Colin
• Position: United Nations Mission in Liberia

Since August 2003 thousands of people have laboured within the United Nations Mission in Liberia, and billions of dollars have been spent, in order to draw a line under the vicious ten years of war which have wracked the country since Charles Taylor invaded Nimba County in December 1989. A certain measure of success has been gained, with Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf reasonably constitutionally elected in November 2005 as the first female President in Africa, and tens of thousands of fighters disarmed in the disarmament and demobilisation programme of the previous year. But whether this success is deep-rooted or will be long-lasting is another story. Given the outwardly successful nature of the electoral process, it is a fitting time to assess the success of UNMIL and the wider international community's efforts, and to see whether what has been done so far will be enough to set Liberia on the road to being a prosperous and peaceful country.

In this assessment I will draw upon Duane Bratt's indicators as to a UN mission's success, as laid out in his 1996 article in the journal International Peacekeeping. (1) Bratt examined the mission's performance of its mandate, its ability to facilitate the resolution of the underlying conflict causes and to contain the conflict by preventing major powers or neighbouring states from intervening, and the issue of casualty limitation. In making this assessment, much use has been made of UNMIL's Reports of the Secretary-General, usually issued about every three months. For reasons of space, some areas of the mandate have been only lightly examined, principally so that important issues such as the Governance and Economic Management Assistance Programme (GEMAP) can be sufficiently discussed.

Mandate performance

UNMIL was established by the UN Security Council's resolution 1509 of 19 September 2003 with a mandate divided into five broad functions. The first was to support the implementation of the ceasefire agreement, including cantonment, disengagement, and implementation of a disarmament, demobilisation, reintegration, and repatriation programme. The three factions--the Government of Liberia (GOL), Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD), and the southern-based Movement for Democracy in Liberia (MODEL)--were to be dismantled and eventually transformed into political parties or groupings. Second, the mission was directed to protect United Nations personnel, facilities, installations and equipment, and the security and freedom of movement of its personnel. The third broad mission was to facilitate the provision of humanitarian assistance and monitor, protect and promote human rights. Fourthly, the Liberian civilian police and military were to be reformed. Fifthly, UNMIL was to support the peace process through helping to reestablish national authority and administration throughout the country and preparing for 2005 national elections.

In addition, Security Council resolution 1638 (2005) tasked UNMIL with apprehending and detaining Charles Taylor should he return to Liberia, for onward transfer to the Special Court in Sierra Leone. This has now been accomplished, and Taylor is in Freetown awaiting trial.

Abortive start

The disarmament and demobilisation programme made a bad beginning. Launched on 7 December 2003, it had to be aborted ten days later. Restarted, it had by the time it ended in November 2004 disarmed a reported 101,495 combatants, many more than the 50--60,000 initially expected. (2) However the figure of 100,000 plus is misleading, as Liberians could be classed as a combatant if they produced 150 rounds of AK-47 ammunition. Only some 28,000 small arms, excluding RPG launchers, had actually been handed in. However International Crisis Group studies make the point that more is not necessarily better, as disarming individuals were willing to try an alternative to continuing fighting without gaining anything substantial in return. Included in the disarmament/repatriation process were women and children--around 27 per cent of the total--compensating the people that served as cooks, spies, porters, and 'bush wives', and allowing the whole ex-combatant group to be addressed rather than just the fighters. (3) The three factions--GOL, LURD, and MODEL--have been effectively disarmed, but the actual number of 'real' combatants was probably much lower than the 100,000 reported. By mid-2005 the only weapons recovery efforts still underway were those occurring when abandoned weapons were found by ordinary Liberians and handed in to UNMIL.

An on-going issue from the disarmament/repatriation process related to heavy weapons and caches. International Crisis Group studies found that most mortars, anti-aircraft guns, and large-calibre machine guns were moved over the border to...