Marchons, marchons? France and the Indo-Pacific: Hamish McDougall reviews an international conference he attended recently in Paris and suggests a reappraisal of Franco-New Zealand relations.

• Author: McDougall, Hamish

'Indo-Pacific' is not a new idea. Te Herenga Waka Victoria University of Wellington scholar Manjeet Pardesi points out that for centuries world affairs have been conceived through the prism of a 'larger Asia'. (1) Nonetheless, use of the term in foreign policy has mushroomed in recent times. It was advanced in 2007 by then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who famously talked of the 'confluence of two seas' (meaning the Pacific and Indian oceans). The concept was subsequently embraced in Washington DC by the Trump administration, which viewed 'Indo-Pacific' as a means to have India and South-east Asia aligned with the West in a growing competition with China. In July 2021 France became one of several countries and regional organisations to adopt Indo-Pacific frameworks to guide foreign, defence, economic and climate policies. Others include the European Union, India, Australia, ASEAN, Germany and even the landlocked Czech Republic.

New Zealand is not immune to the trend. Its government's principles to engage with the Indo-Pacific region were laid out in a speech by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern at the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs' annual conference in July 2021. (2) In May 2022 New Zealand joined talks in the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity. Although these steps fall well short of a defined Indo-Pacific strategy, they nonetheless make clear that New Zealand's government sees value in reaching further west to respond to a range of threats in the region, be they security, economic or climate related. This may reflect, as Professor David Capie said in a recent landmark speech, 'the end of the Asia-Pacific era'. (3)

From New Zealand's point of view, France's approach to the Indo-Pacific region is worth watching, and not only because it governs two of New Zealand's closest Pacific neighbours, French Polynesia and New Caledonia. Significantly, the momentum towards the Indo-Pacific region has come from the very top of French politics. President Emmanuel Macron personally outlined the French government's approach in a series of speeches, most notably in Sydney in May 2018, which remain the lodestar for officials working in the area. A defence strategy and foreign affairs white paper followed, and France's Indo-Pacific strategy was officially launched in mid-2021. The strategy very much reflects a worldview from the Elysee Palace. Indeed, the French Indo-Pacific strategy was delivered despite initial scepticism from officials in the French Foreign Ministry, some of whom prefer a more traditional foreign policy focus on Europe, North Africa and the Middle East.

The Indo-Pacific push from the apex of French politics may have advantages for New Zealand. Prime Minister Ardern presently enjoys a perhaps unprecedented rapport with the French president. This is evidenced by collaboration on the Christchurch Call to counter extreme violence and terrorism online, which was given further impetus by Ardern and Macron's co-hosting of the leaders' summit in New York in September last year. It is also reflected in Macron's willingness to support the EU-New Zealand free trade agreement. Now that the free trade agreement has been signed, the two leaders' personal connection may lead to other fruitful areas of Franco-New Zealand collaboration, rather than being mired in debates about agricultural trade access (although some wrangling will inevitably continue) or, further back in history, French nuclear testing in the South Pacific.

More importantly, Macron is temporarily bestriding the European Union as the pre-eminent political force. His 2022 election victory made him the first French president in 20 years to be re-elected. The departure of Angela Merkel, the long-serving German chancellor, has also strengthened his hand in the European Union, which is experiencing greater solidarity following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Brexit and continued political upheaval in the United Kingdom mean that more EU member states, and some countries outside the union, are...