Crisis in East Asia? Terence O'Brien argues that the transformation of East Asia is altering the balance of New Zealand's interests in the world.

• Author: O'Brien, Terence

The re-emergence of China to a position that reflects its historical importance, its remarkable advance, its immense potential and its complementarities with the rest of Asia and beyond is transforming regional relationships. The value of trade between China and the region stands at $500 billion. Fifty per cent of China's trade is with the region, and 70 per cent of inward investment in China comes from Asia. China is an engine of regional growth and, as such, has helped pull Japan out of a decade-long economic slump. (1)

Responses to China's re-emergence vary. There is ambiguity about Japan's reaction. Whilst deepening economic ties with China are a spectacular reality, Tokyo is still in the throes of a profound strategic debate. There is evidence that Japan is determined to carve out a more prominent security role and wind back constitutional constraints over how it projects military strength. (2) It identifies North Korea as a threat and therefore as justification for a military build-up, but this camouflages a deeper preoccupation with China's ultimate intentions.

The United States and Japan are seeking to strengthen their longstanding security alliance. The US military presence in Japan is vital to America's global reach, including into the Middle East, and Washington has actively encouraged Japan to reassess its security policy. Nonetheless, some Americans believe it important for the United States to emphasise to China that it does not conceive the reinvigorated US-Japan alliance to be directed against China. (3) Beijing is quite aware that although the United States no longer describes China as a strategic competitor, the security doctrine of the present US administration states plainly that the United States will not permit any country to seek parity with, let alone superiority over, the United States. (4)

Japanese concern

In Japan there is concern lest the country becomes a complete hostage to US policies, and therefore alienates China. Some authorities favour a 'more equal' military relationship with the United States and assert continuing attachment to multi-lateralism and the United Nations. But this is secondary to the pressures for a new security role. (5) Deeper dependency upon the United States will most likely ensue from full association with the US missile defence system. Some analysts predict that Japan will then emerge as a steadfast Asian off-shore US ally in the Pacific, playing a loyal regional and global role...