Venturing into unknown territory: Murray McCully outlines the government's approach to the Arab Spring.

• Author: McCully, Murray

The Arab Spring has overturned the landscape of the Arab world. It has demonstrated widespread support for genuine democratic and economic reform. But big uncertainties remain. What will the new order be? How will the transition process play out? How will the changes affect the seemingly intractable Palestine-Israel problem? The outcome will be of immense consequence to New Zealand--strategically, politically, economically and socially. We must continue to play a constructive role in the region, by supporting outcomes that allow populations to express their democratic voices and by promoting real economic reform and sustainable development. We must also manage the significant inherent risks.

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The protest movements that have swept through the Middle East and northern Africa since December last year have collectively overturned the landscape of the Arab world. Some have said that the impact of the Arab Spring on world affairs is on par with the fall of the Berlin Wall.

So what has changed? At the big picture level, there is widespread support for genuine democratic and economic reform. We are operating in an environment where old assumptions are no longer valid. There is a new awareness that leaders cannot afford to be complacent about large sections of their populations who feel their future is hopeless.

What is not clear is what the new order will be. This is a timely opportunity to stop and think about the impact these changes might have on New Zealand's interests and on our engagement with partners. It is fair to say that no-one predicted that a 27-year-old street vendor setting himself on fire last December would trigger a movement that led to the fall of the Tunisian government only a few weeks later.

When that unrest spilled over into neighbouring Egypt, resulting in the fall of Hosni Mubarak, the world truly took notice. The seismic shift in Egypt, the heart of the Arab world, sent ripples into the entire region. To Egypt's west, Libya then descended into a state of civil war. Algeria and Morocco have come through periods of unrest and are now embarking on a series of limited reforms. To Egypt's east, Shi'a/Sunni tensions were exacerbated to the point that troops from other GCC countries were sent into Bahrain, and the Yemeni president was forced to leave the country, leaving Yemen with an uncertain political future. Thrown into this turbulent mix, we have Islamic suspicion of Western intervention, the Arab and Israeli perception of threat from Iran, and stalled bilateral negotiations between Israel and Palestine.

Same drivers

Why has this happened? We can find the same drivers across the region: a young demographic, high unemployment, widespread dissatisfaction with ruling elites, economic disenfranchisement, and access to new social media. However, we may never be able to explain how those drivers converged such that the fear barrier was broken, leading to the toppling of multiple authoritarian leaders within months; in some cases, weeks.

What we do know is that we are now dealing with a series of very different leadership models and high expectations for a better future. While elites remain unchanged in many countries, Arab leaders will have to become more responsive to their people. And economic enfranchisement, human rights and...