WHITHER CHINA?

• Author: Walton, Keith

Keith Walton considers future directions for China in the light of the Chinese Communist Party's evident intention to retain one-party rule.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) under Mao Zedong completed its takeover of China in 1949. Its rule since then has been, in political terms, total. There is no meaningful opposition. It is true that there are eight small parties registered in addition to the CCP, but the CCP in reality controls all of them. CCP legitimacy was originally based on appeals to nationalism and peasant dissatisfaction, buttressed by defeats of the Japanese and of the Chinese Nationalists. The CCP also claims an ability to know the future through possession of special insights made possible through ideology.

If the CCP is the central political institution in China, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is a key element in that centrality. The PLA is expected and required to be partisan and party political. Its formal role is not only to defend the state, as in democratic societies, but also to maintain the party's power. As was made clear by the events in Tiananmen Square, the CCP is dependent on,the PLA to retain its pre-eminent position.

China's leaders perceived the need for economic change away from the communist model in the late 1970s, well before their counterparts in the Soviet Union. Since 1978, under tight central political control, economic reforms have led to a quadrupling of GDP. Economic policy is dubbed `Socialism with Chinese characteristics', with four underlying principles -- the socialist road; dictatorship of the proletariat; the leading role of the CCP; and Marxist--Leninist-Mao Zedong thought. National unity is emphasised, being promoted as the means of avoiding a descent to chaos.

China's economic growth has been achieved despite a lack of respect for the rule of law, the lack of an independent judiciary, poor processes for resolving commercial and civil disputes, and a legal code that is focused primarily on criminal matters. There are few institutional mechanisms available to resolve social concerns. In the absence of such institutions, individuals and groups turn to other means, often various forms of crime such as corruption and smuggling, to further their interests. In Russia, the same lack of rule of law and deficiency in civil institutions has been evident.

There is no sense that law and justice go hand and hand in China. And lack of a legal system is reflected in a lack of legal training prior to 1978, and a significant shortfall in trained lawyers, with little prospect of improvement. In the absence of the legal mechanisms that are necessary to resolve disputes of interest, on-going constraints on economic growth are likely.

Major feature

A major feature of Chinese foreign policy is its irredentist nature. China has more border disputes and territorial claims than any other country. In addition, it has taken the step of legally enshrining its territorial ambitions regarding the South China Sea, the Paracels, and Spratlys: in 1992, the Chinese National People's Congress passed the `Law on territorial waters' to that effect. It is not clear whether this law was a grand gesture on the part of congressional deputies, or a statement of purpose on behalf of the executive. However the legislation was at odds with Premier Li Peng's 1990 proposal for the South China Sea for joint exploration while temporarily shelving the sovereignty issue that would have reduced tensions, and Vice-Premier and Foreign Minister Qian Qichen's later statement of 24 July 1993 that international disputes should be settled peacefully through negotiations.

An important Chinese goal is the `reunification' of Taiwan with the mainland. Taiwan was lost to Japan in 1895, and from...