Dryness forecast, could reach drought levels in some areas

• Published date: 26 January 2023
• Publication title: Otago Daily Times (New Zealand)

Niwa’s five-week forecast shows pockets of those already parched regions could soon meet the threshold for meteorological drought — or that caused by a severe deficit in normal rainfall

Widespread dryness observed across most of the South Island was also expected to expand to swathes of the west of the lower North Island by late February.

‘‘This dryness has been persistent across Southland, Stewart Island, inland Otago and the West Coast, where Greymouth just had its fourth-driest December, and is tracking toward its fourth-driest January,’’ Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said.

Niwa’s latest Hotspot Watch reported that many parts of the upper, eastern and lower South Island received no rainfall over the past week.

Moisture-starved hotspots had developed in Banks Peninsula, much of Otago and coastal Southland.

While parched conditions on the West Coast may be slightly eased by rainfall later this week, many other parts of the south might only receive 15mm across a week, leading soil moisture deficits to decrease ‘‘substantially’’ in many places.

La Nina, the ocean-driven climate system that has influenced much of the southern dryness, was predicted to fade over autumn.

But Mr Noll said a ‘‘lag’’ in the atmosphere responding to changes in the ocean could mean north to northeast winds could keep blowing into the south next season — potentially extending its bout of dryness.

As a result of ongoing conditions, coastal Southland and all of the Department of Conservation estate, including Stewart Island, moved into a prohibited fire season...