It’s firmly now a buyer’s market

• Published date: 15 April 2024
• Author: ■ Tony Alexander is an independent economics commentator. Additional commentary from him can be found at www.tonyalexander.nz
• Publication title: Bush Telegraph

A net 26% of agents say that they are seeing fewer people attending auctions. Late in October, a net 34% said they were seeing more people. The change is even more dramatic for open homes. Back then a net 47% were seeing more people out and about viewing properties. Now a net 22% say numbers are decreasing

FOMO has all but disappeared again while there has been a solid rise in FOOP – fear of over-paying. In fact a net 26% of agents now say that in their area prices are falling. In October a net 34% said they were rising.

The ultimate outcome is a net 57% saying that it is a buyer’s market once more. In September a net 3% observed that we were in a seller’s market.

Shortly after the Reserve Bank predicted recession back in November 2022, I said that this was an important thing to do because using words to scare people into cutting spending would lessen the need for much higher interest rates. Now the same effect is occurring but via the official data from Statistics NZ rather than any new statement from our central bank.

This recession discussion arrived just after one forecasting group scared buyers off with a prediction that interest rates were set to rise another 0.5%. At the same time and still ongoing, we have rising listings numbers taking away any sense of urgency on the part of buyers. The stock of property listed for sale nationwide has now gone up 21% since July last year.

The latest new and negative development is a surge in people’s worries about job loss. I ask...